It’s May, which means it’s time to look closely at la corsa rosa and get excited for the first grand tour of the year. Not that I need any help getting excited for the Giro, of course. If Le Tour is my #1 sporting event of the year, the Giro is probably #1b.
For those of you keeping track, I’m hoping to publish at least one post a week on the Giro this year. Anything more than that and we’re in bonus territory.
Anyway, this year’s race looks like it’s going to be a blast. The course is EPIC and it starts in Holland. You can’t go wrong with a bike race starting in Holland.
GC Contenders
My Podium
3. Cadel Evans, BMC
Has looked great so far in the spring and looks like he has a new-found spirit (thanks to the rainbow jersey?) Still, I look at a mountain like Zoncolan and think- that’s just not made for Evans. I also think the lack of a long, flat individual time trial hurts Evans. He was trailing Basso until the final time trial in La Vuelta last year. He has no such advantage this year. The race starts and ends with shorter efforts (and the finale has a bump in the middle.) The major contro il tempo test will be the brutal Plan De Corones time trial. While I wouldn’t bet against the ex-mountain biker doing well on such a challenging course, he won’t have the same decisive advantage he would if it were a more straightforward crono route. On a long, flat time trial course Evans would eat up minutes out of people like Basso and Sastre.
2. Ivan Basso, Liquigas
Basso was very consistent in the mountains in two grand tours last year, finishing fourth in both based almost completely on his climbing.
Looking back at those results, this year’s edition clearly favors the Liquigas rider.
In last year’s Giro, Basso finished 3:59 behind the Russian Denis Mechov. Menchov took 2:17 out of Basso in the epic Cinque Terre time trial and an additional 20+ seconds out of him in the finale in Rome. This year? This year’s centerpiece time trial is the aforementioned Plan de Corones stage.
And then there’s this rogues gallery:
- Stage 14: Monte Grappa, (1675 meters, 18.9 KM in length, 1501 meters of elevation gain, avg grade 7.9%, max grade 14%)
- Stage 15: Monte Zoncolan (1730 meters, 10.1 KM in length, 1200 meters of elevation gain, avg grade 11.9%, max grade 22%)
- Stage 16: Plan de Corones (2273 meters, 12.85 KM in length, 1086 meters of elevation gain, avg grade 8.5%, max grade 24%)
- Stage 17: Passo delle Palade (1523 meters, 18.9 KM in length, 1242 meters of elevation gain, avg grade 6.6%, max grade 16%)
- Stage 19: Passo del Mortirolo (1854 meters, 12.8 KM in length, 1317 m of elevation gain, avg grade 10.3%, max grade 18%
- Stage 20: Passo di Gavia (Cima Coppi) (2618 meters, 24.9 KM in length, 1399 meters of elevation gain, avg grade 5,6%, max grade 14%)
Brutally back-loaded and full of some of the toughest climbs in the Giro, the course is made for consistent, strong climbers. Basso fits that bill.
1. Carlos Sastre, Cervelo
Speaking of strong, consistent climbers…
I picture Sastre taking la maglia rosa on Stage 8, giving it up for a few days and then taking it for good on Stage 15. Those kind of profiles are made for Sastre and this kind of climb heavy course is practically designed for the Spanish climbing sensation.
My biggest concern over Sastre is the quality of the team around him. It’s a solid enough squad, but compared to, say, Liquigas, it’s clear Sastre is at somewhat of a disadvantage.
He sure can climb though and with this profile that might be all it’ll take to seal the deal.
As an aside, Alberto Contador would win this race by ten minutes. I’m just saying… He’d be gassed until August, but he would crush the competition.
Other Riders of Note
Stefano Garzelli
He’s had great results in the past (a win, a 2nd, mountains jersey, etc.) and with a win in Tirreno–Adriatico he’s shown he’s still got some form in those old legs. He’ll be involved.
Alexandr Vinokourov
I’m not quite over Vino’s doping bust.
I’m still mad/sad about the whole thing.
That said, the guy can still race a bike and has great form. Fresh off of his wins in Liège–Bastogne–Liège and the Giro del Trentino, you can expect Vindo to be his aggressive, attacking self for the month of May.
Marzio Bruseghin
Check out his palmares. All the guy does is finish in the top ten of the Giro. My bet? He’ll be there again.
Damino Cunego
Cunego is going to win one of the big stages. Probably not one of the massive mountaintop finishes, those will be the domain of the biggest GC guys, but maybe something like stage 19 or 20 where he can slip away over the Mortirolo or the Gavia while the big GC guys fight it out.
Domenico Pozzovivo
Young, he can climb and he’s had some good results already this year. You’ll hear his name.
One Sentence Each on Five Other Riders
André Greipel
Think he’s got something to prove?
David Millar
At the end of May, will his Giro have been more noteworthy for a result or a quote?
Tyler Farrar
Without Cavendish around to smash him into bits, will Farrar eat up stages?
Alessandro Petacchi
He’s still got it in him.
Gilberto Simoni
I would love to see him win a stage in this, his last race- Zoncolan redux?
And there you have it. I could probably write another 1000 words, but I figure I should leave something in the tank for next week.
Fun. Times.
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