Every Rider in the Top 7 Of the Tour Can Win the Race. Here’s How Each Could Do It…

As of right now there are, in my estimation, seven guys who can win the Tour. The following post will outline the case for each of them winning. Which one will actually win? Have you seen this race over the first two weeks? If so you’ll know I’ve got no clue 🙂

1. Thomas Voeckler

   

   Scenario: After watching the first few mountain stages, it’s clear that Thomas is climbing as well as he ever has and there’s no real strong favorite in the race to snatch the jersey away from him. Based on that it’s simply not a given that he will crack in the Alps and just hand the jersey over to one of the guys waiting in the wings. If that’s the case and none of the other riders are as strong as advertised, then he’s got a chance. While he’s not the best time trialist in the history of the discipline, he’s got a decent buffer against Evans, the only contender strong in the time trial within striking distance.

   Likelihood: I can dream, but it’s still extremely unlikely. The possibility of him sneaking onto the podium has to be taken seriously, however. Especially if one of the following riders wins the race with one or two dominant efforts in the Alps and the rest of the contenders ride in a smaller group together. That itself would be a magnificent result.

2. Frank Schleck

   Scenario: Frank has looked like the strongest of the Brothers Leopard, so it’s an easy route from that strength to a dominating run through the Alps. Frank has already won on the Alpe so it’s natural to think of a repeat performance.

   Likelihood: To me, the strongest Schleck winning the day still seems like the likeliest result from the next week. These guys have been amongst the best climbers in the world over the past few years so seeing them translate that prowess and their strong team to the top step of the Tour podium (especially in this crazy year) is easy to visualize. I’m not entirely sold on their team tactics and their killer instinct, but… they’re really good.

3. Cadel Evans

   Scenario: Everyone, so far, looks pretty evenly matched in the mountains. If that’s really the case and if Voeckler cracks, then Evans has the time trialing skills to blow away the rest of the contenders.

   Likelihood: This is another strong possibility. While I’m still expecting someone to dominate the Alps, it’s no certainty that someone is actually going to step up and take the race. If that’s the case and they don’t? Cadel wins his first grand tour in the time trial.

4. Andy Schleck

   Scenario:The exact same argument for Frank applies here. To me, Andy has never really looked like he’s ready to take over the race. Maybe he’s sandbagging and waiting for the Alps?

   Likelihood: I thought he was going to win when the Tour started and I still think he can win. That said, he needs a couple of minutes over Evans to win and that’s going to be a tough ask. It’s definitely possible, even likely, but he’s going to have to be a different rider than he was in the Pyrenees.

5. Ivan Basso

   

   Scenario: Basso is built for the Alps and has timed his form perfectly for the Tour’s final week. He takes significant time on the Galibier and then puts in a Sastre-like effort on the Alpe to win the Tour.

   Likelihood: To me he looks a lot like the Basso that ground Evans into paste on the Zoncolan, so I wouldn’t be surprised by this result at all. I’m also hoping for it s a fan, for full disclosure’s sake.

6. Samuel Sanchez

   Scenario: Sanchez has been the only rider to put significant time into the rest of the contenders in the mountains. He needs to continue that trend in the Alps and take back a ton of time over the two final mountaintop finishes…

   Likelihood: This is the least likely scenario. Much of Sanchez’ success in the mountains is down to the fact that he was allowed to go away on both days. He’s far enough back and isn’t a dangerous climber like Contador so they let him go. I don’t think that trend would continue if he looked like a danger to the rest of the contenders.

7. Alberto Contador

   Scenario: Finally recovered from his Herculean Giro effort, Contador finds the legs that have given six grand tour titles in a row and demolishes the competition in the two mountaintop finishes. He then puts in a solid time trial, finishing in the top ten overall on the day, cementing his fourth yellow jersey and winning by a full minute over the second place rider.

   Likelihood: This is highly unlikely, but still possible. Contador just hasn’t looked all that great. A fit, rested Contador would have crushed people On Saturday and would be fully capable of taking four or five minutes out of the field in a week like this one upcoming. The Contador we’ve seen so far doesn’t look like that guy.

Wednesday can’t come fast enough.