As I ready myself for the best month of the year (fun, sun and whenever I’m inside- hours upon hours of the Tour de France to watch right there on my TV) I’m also getting myself mentally prepared for the awkward coverage I’ve come to expect from Versus. Even though the real sporting focus for the rest of the world has moved onto a certain rider from Spain, the Versus team still portrays Armstrong as the favorite.
As much as I pull for the guy, in reality, it would be a magnificent upset if he were able to beat Contador.
Anyway, in honor of their lopsided view of things, here’s an article from the flip-side. Instead of looking at the Tour from a point of view that includes Lance as the top favorite, let’s look at the race with Lance as a guy who could conceivably finish outside of the top ten. While I’m not predicting Lance will finish 12th or something (I expect him to finish in the top five, to be honest) it could happen, and if it does it could be these ten guys that do it.
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Alberto Contador
Why He’ll Beat Lance
Alberto is the best stage racer in the world. He’s one of the five best time trialists and the best climber. He’s actually got a strong team with him (assuming Vino doesn’t go insane.) No matter what the guys on Versus might say, if Lance Armstrong beats The Accountant, it will be a major upset.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
He won’t. Okay, he probably won’t. Lance’s only chance is that Contador lets his aggressiveness get the better of him in the mountains and bonks or flats/crashes on the mini-classic of Stage 3. Otherwise, Contador should take time out of Lance (and the rest of the field) whenever it matters.
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Ivan Basso
Why He’ll Beat Lance
After a year of building up race mileage, and competitive, but not stellar results, Basso is all the way back as a climber and grand tour contender. Winning this year’s Giro with his climbing legs (and normal blood values) over some of the most brutal mountain passes in Europe signifies that Basso is back at the top end of the sport.
Returning to the Tour, the site of so much of his former glory, completes his comeback, so there’s additional importance for him attached to this race.
Also, while Lance used to take big time out of Basso in the time trial, the two men have converged at a level just below the elites with Basso improving and Lance dropping down a notch or two. Based on potential form, Basso has it over Lance.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
Basso just won a very hard Giro and there’s no telling how well he’s recovered. Winning the double is difficult and there’s a strong chance that Basso will be there just to stage hunt or will go for the overall and end up well down the GC (a la Denis Menchov’s post-Giro 51st last year.)
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Andy Schleck
Why He’ll Beat Lance
Andy Schleck can climb mountains on a bicycle. He will eat Lance alive in the Pyrenees. Unless he’s totally screwed up form-wise, he should take minutes out of him at every turn.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
The odds aren’t good, but if Andy is sub-par in the mountains, pays too much attention to helping his brother Frank and Lance can find his Time Trial legs again, then Lance could take him out.
I’m not holding my breath.
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Frank Schleck
Why He’ll Beat Lance
He just did, at the Tour de Suisse, so there’s no reason to think he won’t beat him again. A strong climber. Frank will (along with Andy) be one of the prime movers of the Tour once it hits the mountains.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
What’s better for Saxo Bank: 2nd and 3rd or 1st and, say, 6th? Saxo really needs to go all-in behind Andy to try to win this thing. If they do the smart thing, as opposed to the brotherly thing, then Lance will benefit.
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Denis Menchov
Why He’ll Beat Lance
The quiet Russian has won three grand tours, can climb at a level just below the Schlecks and Contadors of the world, is a very strong time trialist and has focused his entire season on the Tour this year.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
Denis has two top five finishes at the Tour, so it’s not like the race has been a disaster for him, but he’s really never put it all together a the Tour. Armstrong, on the other hand, is a master of being at peak form for July. Will Menchov be able to put it all together this time?
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Cadel Evans
Why He’ll Beat Lance
The new, improved, rainbow-jersey-clad Cadel Evans is a beast. Attacking like he’s channeling The Badger, Evans has been a rider reborn since winning the World Championship last year. A steady climber and excellent time trialist, Evans has everything it takes to perform well at the Tour.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
If Basso is a question mark because of the Giro, what about Evans? Cadel rode the same race and had a tough spring campaign as well. What’s he got left?
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Bradley Wiggins
Why He’ll Beat Lance
Wiggins time trials like a demon and last year he proved that he can climb well enough to sniff at the podium.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
Was Wiggins’ ability to hang with the big boys in the mountains last year a fluke, or is he the real deal? If it was at all flukey, then Lance should be able to take him out. Otherwise, Wiggins’ time trialing will be tough to overcome.
If it’s a race for 3rd between the two then possibly the overwhelming power of Radio Shack might be able to tip the scales in Lance’s favor.
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Levi Leipheimer
Why He’ll Beat Lance
He’s still one of the top stage race time trialists and he can climb with everyone but the true mountain goats.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
Levi is a really good teammate. If he works for Lance, then clearly he won’t beat him unless Lance is completely off his form (which seems unlikely.)
Otherwise, at this point I think he’s a stronger GC contender than Lance.
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Carlos Sastre
Why He’ll Beat Lance
Sastre can climb like a demon when he has form. When he’s on he can take minutes out of mortal climbers.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
He still can’t time trial, he’s got a weak team and he’s had some misfires in grand tours since he won the Tour.
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Roman Kreuziger
Why He’ll Beat Lance
He’s an ascendant rider on a strong team. If Basso is weakened from his Giro campaign, Kreuziger will have the powerful Liquigas squad there to shepherd him through the Tour.
Why Lance Will Beat Him
While it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him in the top five, based on his experience level, he’s probably destined for the second five. Grand tour success is a tricky thing and if there’s one guy out there that knows about it, it’s Lance. Kreuziger is still learning.
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