Writing this while watching the intro show and wondering, where in the world is Al Trautwig? WTF?
Beyond that, there’s still time to go through some of my normal preview activities…
The Podium Contenders
Cadel Evans
Evans, to me, has to be the favorite just based on his success at the Tour. Of all the other people pegged as contenders he’s had the most success in this race and when it comes to the Tour that makes a difference. Success in the Vuelta (Menchov), and Giro (Cunego, Andy Schleck,) don’t necessarily translate to Le Grand Boucle. Which isn’t to say those guys don’t have a chance (I’ll mention all three later on 🙂 ), it’s just there’s something different about racing in the Tour and Evans has proven he can hang in this, the grandest grand tour of them all. 
If all goes to plan, his steady strength in the mountains and excellent time trialing abilities will be the difference maker and Australia will have its first Tour winner. The one thing that holds him back a little is his lack of ability to really attack in the high mountains. There will be no Contador or Armstrong (to pick two recent examples) style attacks where he suddenly switches into a high gear and blows away the competition in a violent move. This isn’t a bad thing necessarily, as he’s still got the overall skills to win, it’s just a little bit of a different approach than we’ve been used to over the past few years.
In his defense Miguel Indurain won five Tours riding defensively in the mountains and taking big time in the time trials, so I’m sticking with the Aussie as my pick for the final Yellow Jersey.
Alejandro Valverde
Valverde showed me something new in the recent Dauphine Libere- an ability to really Time Trial. Which is why the recently crowned Spanish road race champion is high on my list of contenders. He can certainly climb so winning a time trial against world class competition is a major signal that Valverde is ready to make the leap. Does he have the tactical experience? Can he hold up over three weeks? Those are the questions he needs to answer if he’s going to podium. I have a feeling he might just be able to do it.
Denis Menchov
Menchov, more than anyone in the field maybe, has Grand Tour success (winning the Vuelta twice) and and a real axe to grind owing to the debacle he witnessed last year riding alongside the disgraced Michael Rasmussen. Menchov was expecting to be the team leader last year and his place was usurped by Rasmussen only to see the Dane booted out of the race for a litany of offenses.
So, Menchov has tactical experience and motivation. He’s also got solid climbing ability and is excellent in the “race of truth.” His only weakness is his ability to really climb the high mountain passes. Like Evans he will have to ride defensively in the mountains and take time in the time trials.
Damiano Cunego
“The Little Prince” of Italian cycling and former winner of the best young rider White Jersey in the Tour foresook his home race this year to prepare exclusively for the Tour. Will it pay off? Only time will tell, but Cunego has the climbing ability to make waves in the race. Can he time trial well enough to podium? He’s been working at it, but working at it and doing it in the biggest stage race in the world are two different things.
The Brothers Schleck
Andy and Frank are both talented and both have been pegged as potential strong me in the Tour. I’m not entirely sold on Frank as a grand tour combatant, and Andy is still so very young, but the pair are so talented I have to include them here. If pressed I’d peg Andy as the likelier contender based on his heroic ride in last year’s Giro, but I’m not entirely sold on either of them for a place on the podium.
Carlos Sastre
A reasonable “outside” pick for the podium. If things really heat up in the high mountains Sastre certainly has the ability to stay with anyone in this race so he might be able to take away enough time from people to make up for his less-than-stellar time trialing.
Mauricio Soler
Another guy who can climb with less than stellar time trialing abilities. If he’s interested I’d bet on him to win the Polka Dot climber’s jersey, but the podium? I’m not so sure. He sure can climb though so he could definitely make some waves in this year’s high mountain passes.
My Picks
- Evans
- Menchov
- Valverde
Green Jersey
With Boonen out based on his positive cocaine test, Thor Hushovd and Robbie McEwen suddenly relegated to second fiddle on his team (behind Evans), I’m going out on a limb and pegging British sprinter Mark Cavendish for the Sprinters Jersey.
Best Young Rider
While he’s not my favorite cyclist in the Peloton, Riccardo Ricco is my favorite for the White Jersey. He gave Contador a run for his money in the Giro, which is basically all I’m basing this pick on 🙂
Can you blame me?
That’ll have to do for now. As always I’ll be updating regularly with my thoughts on the race.
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